Crops and Agronomics

The News-Gazette had a couple good overviews of the crop situation with prices threatened by lower tariffs and an otherwise strong growing season. The wonky article had a summary for layman:

Doug Gucker: Crop, Stock & Ledger | Area crops moving rapidly to maturity
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 Right now, the crops are looking good from the road. The corn is tall, green with good kernel set. Soybeans are podded to the top and still blooming and the plants are tall, some over 4.5 feet tall. Currently, the corn growing degree day decision-support tool at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center is projecting area corn to reach maturity or “black layer” (R7) stage between midand late August. This is a couple weeks ahead of normal, so harvest may be starting earlier than normal.

The next three weeks are the critical grain-filling stage for both corn and soybeans. This period will determine whether we have areawide bin-buster yields or not. The possible “flies in the ointment” to above-average yields are the current lack of subsoil moisture reserves and the possible return of above normal temperatures across the central region of Illinois.

Ag folks can get more details out of the full article. They had an article geared for the layman as well:

Crops looking great, but low prices taking luster off expected yields
While farmers are concerned about talk of trade and tariffs, they've also been busy growing what could be a record crop.

"It's looking really good," said Mark Pflugmacher, who farms in northern Champaign County. "We could use a little rain on the beans, but the corn looks phenomenal ... This is shaping up to be one of my best years on corn..."

In the second week of July, corn conditions are about 82 percent predictive of yields, and in the last week of July, soybean conditions are about 76 percent predictive of yields, Scott Irwin and Todd Hubbs wrote last month.

In June, based on these conclusions, they predicted average yields of 49.5 bushels per acre for soybeans and 176 bushels per acre for corn.

If those hold up, this year would be the fifth year in a row that yields were above the trend line average.
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Higher yields are good for farmers, but that's not to say the relatively low corn and soybean prices aren't a concern.

"We're seeing crop prices swinging 20 cents a bushel per day. I have no idea where it's going to be," said Dennis Riggs, who farms near Sidney. "All it takes is a tweet, and it will go up or down."

"Commodity prices are below the cost of production, so in order to pay the bills it helps to have more bushels," said Jeff Fisher, who farms near Tolono.

While prices affect when and how farmers sell their grain, Riggs said, "the only thing we can do is grow as good a crop as we can."

Full article with a lot more information here.