More COVID Updates: Tier 1 Mitigation

Following up on yesterday's COVID updates on the Cheat Sheet, news broke yesterday that Region 6 has jumped back to Tier 1 mitigation status, which includes Champaign County and of course Champaign-Urbana. This follows recent news of the more infectious UK strain of the coronavirus being detected in Illinois (the vaccine appears effective against this variant). First the good news from WAND last night:

Central Illinois regions have moved to lower COVID-19 mitigation levels after the state announced a hospital staffing program and changed its mitigation metrics. 

Region 6, which includes the east half of central Illinois, has met the metrics to move to the Tier 1 mitigation level. Region 3, or the west half of central Illinois, will have even fewer restrictions as it moves to Phase 4 of the original Restore Illinois plan. Both regions were previously under Tier 3, which is the strongest mitigation level possible. 

The changes significantly reduce restrictions to businesses and will allow bars and restaurants to reopen in central Illinois. Tier 1 allows limited indoor service at the lesser of 25 percent capacity or 25 people in the room. Indoor tables can't exceed four people under Tier 1 and indoor service is suspended for business that don't serve food. 

Full article with more regional details here. The Illinois Department of Public Health mitigation page explains what this means in far more detail here. The local situation involved a longer trend of slowly declining cases and other indicators. From the News-Gazette website last night:

The new rules take effect immediately, IDPH spokeswoman Melaney Arnold told The News-Gazette.

It was a close call Monday. Region 6's hospitalization number dropped by just one, to 180, giving it the required seven days of decline in a 10-day period.

The other metric the region needed to go its way — a seven-day positivity rate under 8 percent — wasn't as close. Region 6's rate fell from 7.0 to 6.7 percent Monday, its seventh straight day in decline...

In reaching Tier 1, Region 6 isn't all the way back to where it was before Nov. 20, when Gov. J.B. Pritzker placed all 11 regions in Tier 3. The last remaining step is to move from Tier 1 to Phase 4.

Full article here with more details and local data. If you're confused, you're not alone. The State of Illinois' Coronavirus Response website breaks down what they mean by each phase of the recovery (e.g. Phase 4 here). The more helpful link on the right hand side is Mitigation, which explains the mitigation tiers to fight a resurgence of COVID-19 during this process. In other words, if a region starts getting a lot of new cases, they could end up in one of the tiers of mitigation before getting back on track. They have a simplified chart to help:

There's a full breakdown and explanation of the Illinois tier system here. People didn't want a "one size fits all" system, so probably the best thing you can do is check for updates from your local health department to know what the current status and rules are: Champaign-Urbana Public Health Department COVID-19 dashboard.

The C-UPHD Administrator also had an update yesterday on data on with Elizabeth Hess on Urbana Public Television and available on YouTube here. All of this comes on the heals of news a few days ago that the UK variant of the coronavirus had been detected in Illinois. From the IDPH website:

The Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH) and Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today announced the first case in Illinois of the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 first identified in the United Kingdom. The case was identified by the Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine through sequencing analysis of a specimen from bio-banked samples of COVID-19 positive tests.

The new strain was first identified in the United States about two weeks ago in Colorado and has since been identified in several other states. Evidence suggests that this variant can spread more easily than most currently-circulating strains of COVID-19, but there is no evidence that the new strain affects the sensitivity of diagnostic tests or that it causes more severe illness or increased risk of death. In addition, data suggest current vaccines will be effective and safe in providing protection against the variant. 

“This news isn’t surprising and doesn’t change our guidance around COVID-19. We must double down on the recommended safety strategies we know help stop the spread of this virus,” said CDPH Commissioner Allison Arwady, M.D. “In order to protect Chicago, please continue to wear a mask, practice social distancing, wash your hands often, do not have outside guests in your home, and get vaccinated when it is your turn.”  

Full news release here. And since nothing about this pandemic can ever be simple, it's probably worth noting Dr. Ezike's warning in the St. Louis Dispatch:

Illinois Department of Public Health Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike said Friday that the discovery of the U.K. variant in the state means residents should take extra precautions in the weeks ahead. A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report released Friday modeled that it could become the predominant variant in the U.S. in the early spring. Other variants have been identified here and in South Africa, Nigeria, Brazil and Japan.

“If we do not continue to wear our masks, watch our distance, and avoid gatherings, this new variant could sweep across the state as it swept across the U.K.,” Ezike said. “That would lead us back to a place that we don’t want to go.”

That full article here, though it is mostly on Missouri's coronavirus situation. What the future holds in Illinois may come down to whether the impact of more infectious variants of the virus outrace our vaccination efforts. It's worth reiterating from the IDPH news release that, "data suggest current vaccines will be effective and safe in providing protection against the variant."

For other COVID-19 Updates this week, see yesterday's Cheat Sheet post here.